May 12, 2017
Warren Cohen
Director of Sales
Global Ingredients
Overview –
Yesterday the Almond Board of California released the April shipment report. Shipments for the month of April were reported at 151.9 million pounds, down approximately 9% compared to the same time last year. Despite the slight decline, this number is the second largest April shipment number for the California almond industry. Year-to-date shipments of 1.6 billion pounds are up over 21% compared to Aug – April last year.
While comparing shipment patterns for crop year 2015 and 2016 to date, it is apparent inshell shipments have significantly impacted the month-to-month cadence. Year-to- date inshell shipments for the industry now stand at 265.3 million pounds. This compares to 188.6 million pounds last year. Inshell shipments for the entire 2015 crop was 238.9 million pounds. Heavy early inshell shipments this crop year contributed to the impressive numbers we witnessed last fall.
The April report also shows commitments are down 5.2% compared to same time last year, and uncommitted numbers are up slightly, 3.27%. Considering these figures, the industry may anticipate a carryout in the 430 – 440 million pound range.
Prices have remained relatively stable to slightly weaker over the last month as the industry waited for the subjective estimate which was announced on May 10 at 2.2 billion pounds, well within most people’s expectations. Consequently, both the shipment numbers and the subjective estimate were very close to what was expected, and not impacting the market in any significant way.
| Market Perspective –
Looking forward, the INC will be the center of attention next week and then all eyes turn to the objective estimate in early July. In the coming weeks it is anticipated market activity will become more active as the industry looks towards new crop bookings. The market appears to be stable with affordable prices, especially when compared to cashews and other tree nuts. The affordability of almonds and the long term favorable supply scenario is sparking renewed interest and increased demand worldwide. Buyer and seller confidence are also returning leading to a healthy market which is desired by all in the industry.
|
Click here to view the entire detailed Position Report from the Almond Board of California.