Laura Gerhard
Vice President
OVERVIEW
The January Position Report marked a record-setting month with 236 million pounds in shipments, a 3% increase from last month and last year. Exports continue their strong pace setting a new monthly record at 173 million pounds, a 12% increase to last year. Domestic shipments had their best performance of the year at 63 million pounds, up 11% to last month but down 5% to last year. Total shipments remain ahead of last year’s pace by 8.6%.
SHIPMENTS
India: Shipments to India were 39 million pounds reflecting a 12% increase to last year. Year-to-date shipments are up by 25%, driven by strong buying activity in the first half of the month. However, activity tapered off in the final weeks as importers focused on execution and profit-taking. Additionally, buyer activity cooled off in anticipation of the Position Report as well as the upcoming almond bloom hoping to get a sense of forward price direction. Overall, demand remains strong with buying activity expected to resurface in the following weeks during the ABC & MEWA conferences in New Delhi followed by the Gulfood show in Dubai providing an opportunity for in-person business.
China/Hong Kong/Vietnam: Shipments to the region were 6.6 million pounds, down 14% from last year. Year-to-date shipments are 17.5% ahead of last year. Buying activity was quiet for the month as China prepared for the Chinese New Year holiday which began on February 10. The industry will closely monitor consumer demand during the holiday as it is a precursor and sets the tone for demand expectations going forward.
Europe: January shipments to the region were 61 million pounds. This is up 4% to last year bringing year-to-date shipments 8% ahead of last year. Western Europe continues to perform well with year-over-year growth from Netherlands, Germany, France and UK. Demand is expected to remain active going forward as arriving product is going straight to market as opposed to storage.
Middle East: Shipments to the Middle East were 28 million pounds for the month, up 8% versus the prior year. This puts year-to-date shipments 7% ahead of last season. Buyers remain active and are shifting to larger sized kernels in response to limited availability of smaller kernel. Red Sea issues persist, leading to pipeline challenges with longer transit times and port congestions as buyers change ports of delivery in search of some relief. The upcoming Gulfood show in Dubai will provide further opportunity for face-to-face business between handlers and buyers.
Domestic: January shipments came in at 62.9 million pounds, down 5% for the month. Despite inconsistent monthly results, domestic shipments remain relatively flat at 0.5% behind the prior year. New sales are down 24.9% from the prior year. Current buying strategies demonstrate a short-term approach as buyers evaluate demand for the back half of the crop year, while assessing potential outcomes for the bloom.
COMMITMENTS
Total commitments stand at 637 million pounds, a 24% decrease compared to last year. New sales for the month were 236 million pounds, down 33% to last year. New sales now trail last year’s pace by 2%, the shortfall coming from domestic shipments. Assuming a 2.45-billion-pound crop, shipments and commitments currently represent 64% of total supply versus 63% last year. The industry is on pace to reach a carryout of nearly 500 million pounds, a level not seen in the past three years. This development is encouraging and is expected to contribute to long-term price stability.
CROP
Crop receipts for the year total 2.391 billion pounds, trailing last season by 3.5%. Many in the industry are still forecasting a crop of around 2.45 billion pounds. The almond bloom is now upon us as with early varieties about to begin and bee boxes being placed in orchards. The market will be closely watching the weather over the coming weeks and the effect it has on bee activity. The bloom is the most important stage of the almond lifecycle in determining production potential for the upcoming crop year.
|
Market Perspective January provided for another strong month of shipments as the industry maintains its momentum over last year’s performance. Much of the position report was already factored into market pricing with many expecting good shipments and receipts reflecting a crop of ~2.4 billion pounds. Buyers remain active in all major markets suggesting continued demand over the coming months which should be supportive of pricing. The focus of the industry will be to maintain shipping pace and continue reducing the carryout down to levels more in balance with demand. The almond bloom is upon us and will be closely followed as the market begins to forecast the potential of the 2024 crop. Visit us at the Gulfood show in Dubai in Shk Saeed Hall 3, booth S3-G56. |
To view Blue Diamond’s Market Updates and Bloom Reports Online Click Here
To view the entire detailed Position Report from the Almond Board of California Click Here