Blue Diamond Almonds
The September Almond Board Position report released last Friday provides a glimpse into the unfolding status for the 2015 crop. Total receipts through September trail last year, and are expected to finish near 1.75 billion lbs. including carry-in inventory, the 2015 supply will be just under 2.1 billion lbs., or 95% of the 2014 supply.
After two months, shipments are 35 million lbs. less than last year, while reported commitments are ahead of last year by 54 million lbs. Netted against a smaller supply, the current year California almond supply is 36% committed vs. 33% last September. September new commitments were just under 200 million lbs. Brisk business continuing into early October will advance that number rapidly.
Shipments into the U.S. Market are up a strong 5% YTD. Overall exports are down by 20% early, with the largest year over year declines in China, India and the Middle East. Forward demand into both China and India suggests stronger shipments in coming months. The Dubai market will take a bit longer to recover, as high priced contracts from the summer are not all being consummated. Much of this issue should resolve prior to pre-Ramadan buying.
2015/ 16 California Almond Industry
|Region||YTD – Versus Prior Year|
|Asia / Pacific||-22%|
|Middle East / Africa||-44%|
|Market Perspective –
In early September, prices came off the highs of June, July and August. As the month ended, pricing was beginning to rebound steadily. As the 2015 crop moves toward the 50% committed level, current pricing is likely to firm for Nonpareil and any CPO 32/34 and larger. Longer term, the much anticipated El Niño is not expected to deliver significant precipitation in October or November, prolonging the debate over the potential for 2016 crop.